Miami Heat: How much is left in the tank?

Almost three weeks removed from the NBA Finals, everybody is caught up in the hype of free agency. Dwight Howard is now a Rocket and looking ahead to next offseason, where LeBron James is thought to opt out and become a free agent.  But I’m back to talk about NBA championships, and specifically, how many the Miami Heat can win.  To make that statement clear: no, I don’t have the answer for you.  All I can do is speculate on what could happen.

LeBron James and the Miami Heat set sky-high expectations for the new squad in the 2010 offseason.  By now, we should all be familiar with the famous words that came out of his mouth (it may have been Wade or Bosh, but they all speak as one): “not three, not four, not five…”  The Miami Heat have won back-to-back championships, whoop-dee-doo.  I’ve got news for you guys, though.  According to them and according to basically every fan and critic, stopping there isn’t going to cut it.

Stopping after two rings is kind of like a tease.  We could look back and say: “okay, you guys won two championships but that’s it.  It’s not like you were the Chicago Bulls of 1991-1998 or any of those remarkable Boston Celtic teams.  You won two championships but then you disappeared and let other teams takeover the league”

Courtesy of sportsillustrated.cnn.com

Miami would be damned if they “let other teams takeover the league” from here on out.  LeBron James would get some props but everyone would remember him as not being able to win with Dwyane Wade in All-Star form.  James’ legacy can’t really afford that, unless he chooses to take his talents to another city, bring along another star, and eventually win a championship there (possibly L.A.?).

Coming off two well-deserved titles, next season is absolutely huge for Miami.  There were times when Dwyane Wade looked to be getting old and sluggish in the 2013 playoffs.  On top of that, Chris Bosh turned more into a solid starter rather than a borderline all-star.  James may have to carry this team more and more as we get further into time.  Even during the 2013 playoffs, James compared his situation to his Cavalier days, where he was expected to carry the bulk of the work.  Only, in 2013, he had transformed as a player and a person.

Because of the money that Mickey Arison had to dedicate to the “big three,” they don’t have any money to spend in offseasons.  However, that was a choice that the organization made, knowing that they’d have to ride a core of James, Wade, and Bosh for as long as they could.  While other teams, such as the Pacers, Rockets, and Clippers, are making significant roster changes to become championship-caliber teams, Miami just awaits the team that’s talented and energetic enough to take them down.

As of 2013, the LeBron James-led Miami Heat sit atop the mountain.  But as time goes on and circumstances change, their position at the top may not be as secure.  Back-to-back championships are impressive but, in the NBA, they are somewhat commonplace.  The 2013-14 Miami Heat are going to have to push even harder to do it again, but it’s unclear how much is left in the tank.

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Zach Tennen's NBA Finals Preview

Let's get right down to business:

There were times against Indiana where Miami’s offense looked stagnant and hesitant to make plays.  The Pacers did a fantastic job of pushing the Heat to the brink, but when Miami had no choice but to execute down the stretch, they did so.  Even a highly powerful Indiana defense could not stop the Heat when the momentum was in Miami’s favor.  What happens in the first half of a game can be a significant indicator of the result, but Miami has shown their ability to completely flip the game around in the second half.

Miami doesn’t just suddenly click on offense because of their offensive talent alone.  It all starts with their terrific effort on defense.  Miami’s athletes do a great job of cutting off passing lanes and forcing their opponent to settle for off-balance, contested jumpers.  Their tremendous effort on defense allows them to take advantage of the game when they get the ball back.  Almost any turnover committed by their opponent results in a quick two or three points at the other end.

For the Spurs, that means making sure they protect the ball at all times.  In the regular season, Miami forced the most turnovers per possession and they did so at a rate of 16.8 percent.  That strength has carried over into the playoffs and it was an absolute killer for an Indiana team that had a great opportunity to win that series.  San Antonio had the second best assist to turnover ratio in the regular season.  When not taking the assist statistic into account, they do a fairly good job of taking care of the ball.  However, taking care of the ball against Miami is much more difficult because of their top-notch athletes and tendency to go for steals.

On the other hand, San Antonio is a team that is known for weathering the storm.  Miami might make a few huge exclamation points, but Tony Parker will often come back down the court and catch the defense off guard.  We may see the tempo of the game change as the series goes on as a possible result of Miami wearing down San Antonio.  In order for that to happen though, Miami needs to prove early that they have a strategy to outlast the competitive Spurs.

It’s no secret; if you don’t get enough stops on defense, you are going to lose games.  If there is absolutely no answer to an overpowering offense, games will get out of hand and that will take a dramatic toll on the outcome of the series.

In the semifinals, both Miami and San Antonio were the superior offensive teams.  Indiana had the fight and the heart to keep up with Miami but they lacked the offensive execution.  Memphis couldn’t have looked better in the first two rounds but they ran into a trap when they met the Spurs, as the Grizzlies found very little success knocking down outside shots.  Because both teams have such great offensive stability, it’s hard to assume that one team will regularly give the other team trouble scoring.

However, we can do our best of assessing this situation by taking what we do know.  Indiana was the best in the league at stopping teams from scoring in the paint but their constant turnovers offset that.  Duncan and the Spurs did a fantastic job of shutting down Memphis’ inside scoring after the Grizzlies dominated teams in the paint in the first two rounds.  On top of that, Gregg Popovich’s highly structured and well-organized offense will not present Miami as many opportunities to get easy buckets.  The Spurs’ chances in this series may lie on whether they will be able to make these games strictly half court.

Tony Parker has brought his best in the playoffs and no team has been able to limit his impact on the game.  Parker may see a variation of defenders being thrown at him throughout the game.  He could have Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole often chasing him around the court, he could have D-Wade playing lockdown defense on him, and he could have a super athletic defensive anchor in LeBron James hounding him at the end of games.  Other perimeter players such as Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, and even Cory Joseph are going to have to cut Parker some slack.

It doesn’t really matter which individual player is going to guard LeBron James because his game has gotten to the point where it is impossible for one man to take any sort of power away from him.  You can only stay in front of him for as long as you can, and even if you put him in a very tough position to score, he could easily make a play for another teammate.  No matter how inconsistent Dwyane Wade has been, we know he has a wicked ability to finish, and being set up by LeBron James makes it even easier for him.

It is a given that LeBron will continue to create plenty of space for three point shooters such as Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers.  It’s just a matter of the shooters being able to capitalize, which they did very well against the Pacers. 

San Antonio has shot considerably well in the playoffs.  Danny Green is one of the best percentage long-range shooters in the game, and they have other notable guys who can shoot from the perimeter like Gary Neal and Manu Ginobili.  Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are the players most responsible for opening up the court for three point opportunities.

However, when sizing up the shooters from both teams, the amount of shooters Miami has, combined with LeBron’s unbelievable ability to set up other teammates may give Miami the edge when it comes to outside shooting.  Ray Allen needs to play the way he did in Game 7 and knock down any open three that comes his way.  The sooner Miami starts hitting outside shots, the more momentum and encouragement it’ll give them to continue doing so throughout the series.

One last factor of this series that I’d like to talk about is rebounding.  Minus Game 7, Indiana demolished Miami on the boards in the Conference Finals.  However, being the better rebounding team always seems to be a top priority for Popovich and the Spurs.  I’m not sure that having a rebounding advantage will be the X-factor in this series, but at the very least, it will keep the series close and competitive.  Indiana had no choice but to control the glass in order to knock off the Heat.  That being said, San Antonio will have to hold a similar type of advantage that the Pacers had on the rebounds.

Prediction: LeBron James gives Miami too many advantages and even the dynamic duo of Tony Parker and Tim Duncan may not be able to do much about that.  LeBron James wins his second straight championship ring as the Miami Heat take down the San Antonio Spurs.

Heat in 6

LeBron’s perfected attitude enlightens South Beach

After LeBron James’ first season with the Miami Heat, this is what he had to say about his imperfections:

“I lost touch with who I was as a basketball player and a person.  I got caught up in everything that was going on around me, and I felt like I had to prove something to people, and I don’t know why.  Everything was tight, stressed.”

You could say that LeBron learned a lot following the 2011 Finals loss to the Dallas Mavericks, but it’s more about what he realized.  The changes he made came from the knowledge he already had and it was just a matter of relaxing and thinking straight.

This is not to say the Dallas Mavericks didn’t deserve credit where credit was due.  The Mavericks came into the 2011 Finals with a picture perfect strategy and didn’t allow LeBron to be the player he was.  Dirk Nowitzki flat out earned that NBA title but LeBron used this series as a meaningful lesson that fixed his future.

Instead of worrying about what others thought about him, LeBron got back to the basics of playing his game.  There was no need to think too much about how he could satisfy others because that’ll automatically happen by him being the basketball maniac that he is.

LeBron James has become a man of confidence over the years and this year he looks more certain about himself than ever before.  Of course, success all starts with the talent you have but your mentality and work ethic as a player is what puts you over the top.  Now, instead of being stressed out and trying to prove himself, King James just serves as the player that he always expected himself to be.

Self-confidence and individual attitude hasn’t been everything for LeBron, though.  From the start of last season, James has somewhat assured his teammates that he would take care of whatever went wrong.  Instead of acting as a part of the so-called “Big Three,” James has taken Wade and Bosh under his wing and made them more comfortable as his sidekicks.

It seems as though LeBron has certainly figured out how to put the pieces of the puzzle together.  In the span of a long NBA career, there are always habits than can be changed and different approaches to take.  James has led the Miami Heat to their third consecutive NBA Finals and he knows what has to be done in order to complete the task.  Now, it’s just a matter of executing and delivering.

ECF Game 6 Prediction

Indiana goes back home where controlling the tempo is a must for them.  Indiana needs to make this a low-scoring, grind-it-out game.  Especially due to Birdman's suspension, Hibbert and West need to dominate down low as much as they can.

LeBron's 2nd half surges have been lifting Miami over Indiana lately.  The defense has had no answers to LeBron's hero ball.  Even a hardworking and tenacious Paul George has become overwhelmed as LeBron uses his experience to get the best of George.

Role players always have to step up in order for Miami to win whether it is Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers, or Ray Allen.  I think King James ends it tonight as he leads Miami to a 93-89 win.

San Antonio Spurs’ glory days continue

In 2007, the Spurs were the unmistakeable kings of the NBA.  Their toughest playoff opponent that year was Phoenix in the second round.  The Spurs defeated them in six games.  After knocking out the Utah Jazz in five games, the Spurs met the LeBron James-led Cavaliers in the 2007 NBA Finals.  Cleveland did not have nearly enough to compete with the Spurs.  San Antonio cruised to the Larry O’Brien trophy as they won in four games.

After a long six-year absence from the NBA Finals, the San Antonio Spurs are back.  Surprisingly enough, the Spurs still have the same core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili.  Many teams would feel the need to break up the core after not returning to the finals for so long.  However, the Spurs didn’t feel it was necessary because they knew this trio had what it took to, someday, return to the NBA Finals.

Manu Ginobili is back and hungry for more at 35 years old.  At 37 years old, Tim Duncan defies the law of aging as he is still an elite big man.  This time around, 31-year-old Tony Parker carries the most responsibility for the Spurs.  Parker is an MVP-caliber point guard that helps Duncan stay in top-notch game shape.  Tim Duncan deserves a ton of credit as he takes care of himself.  But Parker’s excellent stamina and leadership gives Duncan a lift.  Younger players such as Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green also play big roles in the team’s success.

Russell Westbrook’s injury definitely helped open up the door for the Spurs to get to the Finals.  But nobody can use that as an excuse because it is what it is.  At the end of the day, the San Antonio Spurs are the last Western Conference team standing.  You cannot consider this a fluke because we all know the Spurs are made of concrete material.  Only the more unbreakable product can break the Spurs.

The Spurs didn’t just reach the NBA Finals in 1999, 2003, 2005, and 2007.  They won the NBA Finals.  San Antonio has made it clear that they don’t get to the final stage to lose.  They get to the final stage so they can put the icing on the cake.  Whether it’s the Heat or the Pacers, this will be San Antonio’s toughest finals matchup since the 2005 Detroit Pistons.  The Heat and that Pistons team are fairly unlike each other.  But the Pacers are very similar to the ’05 Pistons in that they rely on tenacious defense and don’t depend on a superstar.

No matter who the Spurs play, you can bet they will be fully prepared.  Perhaps, Gregg Popovich will be over-prepared.  If there is any coach that acts as the sixth man, it is Gregg Popovich.  Nobody gets the message across to their players better than Popovich does.  Pop is a genius and a viscous man when it comes to the coaching industry.

As for Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan, they want to make this season unforgettable (in a good way).  One common rule that we have seen throughout the history of the league is that winners stay winners.  Tony Parker’s craftiness with the ball might blow you away, but he plays the game to win.  Tim Duncan’s superiority at 37 years old might be satisfying enough for some, but he plays the game to win.

Follow me on Twitter @ZJTbasketball11

LeBron James takes control of Eastern Conference Finals

Every once in a while, we have to step back and take a moment to acknowledge LeBron James.  We must recognize who this evil man is and the impact he makes on the game of basketball.  In fact, LeBron James is too great for a nickname.  Let’s stop all this “King James” nonsense, once and for all.  The only word that can sum up LeBron is “unbelievable.”

Sometimes, there isn’t necessarily too much that goes wrong for an opponent.  The lone presence of  James is what goes wrong for them.  The Indiana Pacers may bring their “A-Game” on any given day but there’s one big problem:  the Miami Heat have brought out James to overcome that.

Just when things are going swiftly, LeBron comes out and spoils the show.  Just when you think you have found a spark to the plug, James comes out and electrocutes you.  Just when you find yourself jumping for joy, LeBron comes out and knocks you down on your back side.

James’ play in game 3 made the Pacers think twice about how they can beat the Heat this series.  They seemed to have the answer in the first two games in South Beach:  Paul George locked down James and even forced him to cough up the ball during the crucial finishing seconds of game 2.

But then the Heat came out with tremendous energy and urgency in Indiana.  Udonis Haslem was automatic with his jumper, Chris “Birdman” Anderson was finishing plays like he was made for offense, Mario Chalmers was playing like he had Indiana’s defense figured out and D-Wade was in his superstar form while still serving as the second option.

James had only a mediocre statline of 22 points, four rebounds, and three assists, but that didn’t matter.  The moves he made on Paul George screamed, “you can’t stop me!”  And as usual, he opened up the court for everyone else, leaving an elite Indiana defense with their legs crossed.

LeBron James brought out the scary side of the Miami Heat in game 3.  Indiana must beware as that game could have very well been the turning point in this series.  Miami’s athleticism got the best of Indiana: James regularly cruised down the court with the ball and could not be denied.

The Pacers, somehow, have to do a much better job of settling down the pace in game 4.  They need to set the tone of the game from the second the ball is tipped.  Even as great of a defense as they are, it’s tough for Indiana to interfere with the flow of the game.  Roy Hibbert is clearly most effective when he is able to stop a player like James at the basket.  But here’s the problem with that…

Every single Miami starter can consistently knock down the mid-range jumper.  Whether it is Bosh or Haslem, Hibbert has to step out on them.  If he doesn’t, then Haslem can go 8-for-9 with 17 points like he did in game three.

Miami puts on a show in Bankers Life Fieldhouse

Pacers fans were ready to rock in Game 3 as their team was undefeated at home heading up to that game.  Little did they know that it wouldn't be as easy as they expected.  Well, maybe some of them knew...because they should have.  I mean, they are playing against the 4-time MVP and clearcut best player on the planet along with the man formerly known as "Flash."

Miami was firing on ALL cylinders last night.  Indiana is known as a superior defensive team but Miami flipped that image pretty well last night.  LeBron and D-Wade looked like they were in practice. Udonis Haslem was draining shots left and right and Birdman continued his perfect shooting display.

Miami managed to cancel out Roy Hibbert and David West with their undeniable offense.  Miami was just......well, they were just what they are advertised to be....

THE ALMIGHTY MIAMI HEAT!

Miami @ Indiana Game 3

Miami goes into Indiana where they lost both season games by double digits. I'm curious to see how they respond. Bosh needs to play bigger. He can't continue to let Hibbert and West own him or Miami could be in trouble. I think LBJ and Wade come out fired up tonight. Miami wins 96-91.